Waller’s Lightning Affair

He will be the 11th winner of the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) to run as a three-year-old in the Lightning, with trainer Chris Waller accounting for four of the ten to do so.

On average, three-year-olds tend to do well at weight-for-age, across all distances and around the world, with the logic being that an elite level three-year-old is at the top of their game and getting a weight-for-age allowance from older horses.

Similar to a star apprentice taking 3kg off their mount, finding three-year-olds in weight-for-age racing can be beneficial, but what do the stats say when it comes to one of the best sprint races in the land?

Putting the Racing And Sports database to work, we can see that a total of 69 three-year-olds have contested the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) since 2000, with six winning and a further 16 running a place.

In that time, the market has expected just over nine winners from the group of 69. So, on average, the three-year-olds in the Lightning have underperformed, if only slightly, but the very good ones tend to do very well.

According to Racing And Sports ratings, Testa Rossa in 2000 was the best three-year-old Lightning runner with a winning rating of 128 over fellow three-year-old Falvelon.

Testa Rossa’s time of 56.04 is the third-fastest time this century over the Flemington 1000m, bettered only by the race’s namesake, Black Caviar (twice).

Other top line three-year-olds to have won the Black Caviar Lightning include Choisir, who ran to 126, Fastnet Rock (126) and Home Affairs (125), and it is the latter that makes for an easy, yet worthwhile comparison to Saturday’s favourite Switzerland.

The parallels are obvious. Same trainer, same jockey, same major owners, both having won the Coolmore Stud Stakes in dominant fashion, wearing the Coolmore silks.

Home Affairs won the Coolmore in 2021 by three lengths with a Racing And Sports rating of 125.

Switzerland won the Coolmore by 2.8 lengths with a Racing And Sports  rating of 125.

Home Affairs then resumed in the Lightning but wouldn’t start favourite when beating the 130 rated (and unlucky) Nature Strip, matching his Coolmore rating of 125.

Home Affairs was Waller’s second Black Caviar Lightning winner after Nature Strip who had won the year previously and his first three-year-old having attempted to do so with Shellscrape, Brazen Beau, Japonisme, Lean Mean Machine and September Run in the past.

Of Waller’s six three-year-old Lightning runners, four had won the Coolmore in the Spring.

Brazen Beau ran to 122 in his Coolmore win and 118 in the Lightning, only beaten by the 129 rated Lankan Rupee on that day.

Japonisme also went 122 in the Coolmore, improving first-up in the Lightning to run what would be a peak Racing And Sports  rating of 124 in the Lightning, which would only be good enough for third, beaten by Chautauqua and Terravista.

Flemington straight-track specialist September Run went 116 in her Coolmore win and was only denied in the Lightning by Nature Strip, improving to a career peak rating of 120 when beaten just half a length.

This quartet shows that Waller’s top three-year-old sprinters absolutely measure up in the Lightning, and more or less held their rating. Only Brazen Beau dipped, but he still ran second to an elite sprinter on the day.

Given that Switzerland can count himself as one of the best Coolmore winners we’ve ever seen, there’s every indication to suggest he’ll run to his best on Saturday.

If that eventuates, there’s every chance a Chris Waller trained Coolmore winner will strike twice in the Black Caviar Lightning.