Is Jan Brueghel set to break Aidan O'Brien's Cup duck?

The master of Ballydoyle knows exactly what a Melbourne Cup winner looks like, having seen his son, Joseph, post two famous triumphs in Australia's greatest horserace. O'Brien also knows exactly what a Melbourne Cup second looks like, having supplied the silver medallist in both those years.

"That was only a pleasure," says O'Brien's of defeats that came with the very brightest sort of silver lining - and with Joseph this time without a representative, there is no prospect of the sorcerer being denied by his brilliant apprentice.

Bookmakers on both sides of the world have for weeks had Jan Brueghel at the top of their Lexus Melbourne Cup markets, in part out of respect for the colt's trainer but also because the Irish raider's claims are screamingly obvious.

It was as recently as May 25 that Jan Brueghel made his belated racecourse debut. That Curragh introduction yielded an eight-length romp, while an upgrade to Group 3 company at the same track four weeks later resulted in a gritty success. The strapping son of Gailleo looked raw and green, as he did when fighting off the challenge of Bellum Justum - a future winner in America - in the Gordon Stakes.

That Glorious Goodwood contest is typically used as a springboard for St Leger hopefuls. Jan Brueghel duly went straight to Doncaster, where he fought out a 500-metre duel with stable companion Illinois up the home straight. For much of that distance it looked like victory could go either way, yet by the time the winning post arrived, Jan Brueghel was asserting.

Everything about that 2,900-metre performance suggested going up to the Melbourne Cup distance could bring about further improvement. That theory will be tested come the first Tuesday in November.

"He has progressed with every race and we still think he's very unexposed," says O'Brien, who began trying to lift the Cup 18 years ago when European staying legend Yeats finished an honourable seventh after trying to concede lumps of weight to all his opponents. Johannes Vermeer became his trainer's first Cup second when beaten half a length by Rekindling in 2017. Three years later exactly the same margin separated Tiger Moth from Twilight Payment.

There are clear similarities between Jan Brueghel and Tiger Moth, another son of Galileo who also lined up in the Cup as a northern hemisphere three-year-old with four previous outings to his name. Although Tiger Moth skipped the St Leger, he had been narrowly denied in the Irish Derby, running to a Racing Post Rating of 117. Jan Brueghel managed a 120-figure last time out but better form has earned him a bigger burden, for while Tiger Moth carried 52.5kg, Jan Brueghel must shoulder 54kg.

"We think he could be well handicapped - and the weight he has been given is the lowest Ryan could have done, so we're happy with how he has been treated." - Aidan O'Brien

Il Paradiso, who was fourth past the post as a northern hemisphere three-year-old for O'Brien in 2019, was also allotted 52.5kg having never hit more than a 113 RPR at that point. Further back in the past, O'Brien sent two St Leger seconds to Flemington. Mahler took third for O'Brien in the 2007 carrying 50.5kg, while Bondi Beach - thwarted by just a head in the Doncaster Classic - had 52.5kg, although both those stayers would have carried one kilogram more in a modern Melbourne Cup following a re-evaluation of the weight-for–age scale.

Jan Brueghel is therefore treading familiar ground in more ways than one for his legendary trainer, whose number-one rider Ryan Moore - a Cup winner aboard Protectionist ten years ago - will travel to Melbourne from California after riding City Of Troy in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Fortunately for Moore, Racing Victoria's head of handicapping David Hegan gave Jan Brueghel a weight that allows him to take the mount. Fortunately for Jan Brueghel's backers, it is a weight that O'Brien considers favourable.

"We think he could be well handicapped - and the weight he has been given is the lowest Ryan could have done, so we're happy with how he has been treated," says O'Brien.

"He is a lovely horse who has won all his races so far and still looks unexposed. We're looking forward to it."- Aidan O'Brien

Based on how Ballydoyle three-year-olds have fared in the past, O'Brien is entitled to be looking forward to it very much indeed.