Coursing history in the Lexus Melbourne Cup

The Willie Mullins-trained gelding had been all the rage in the weeks leading up to the event and got as short as $3.60 pre-barrier draw, but after a slight ease in the hour leading up to the race, started $5.50 and could manage only 14^th behind Without A Fight.

The Willie Mullins-trained seven-year-old is back for another crack at the $8.5 million event and is again prominent in betting, a $7 chance in the market headed by Buckaroo ($5.50).

Just three times in the 163-year history of the race has a horse who started Melbourne Cup favourite returned the next year and won the Cup.

Two of them are the most famous names in the history of the 3200-metre event.

Phar Lap finished third at even money in 1929 before returning to win at 8/11 in 1930, while Makybe Diva was $3.60 punters’ elect in the second of her wins and completed her hat-trick as $4.40 favourite.

The other was Dark Felt, who ran fourth as 9/2 top pick in 1942 before winning as 7/2 equal favourite in 1943.

Of the 36 others to have attempted it, two second placings and three thirds are the best results.

Back again

Return runners, no matter the price, were for a long time horses to avoid in the Melbourne Cup but that has changed in recent years.

Empire Rose and Tawrrific won in 1988/89 having been beaten the year prior, but in the next 30 editions only Brew (2000) and Fiorente (2013) returned to win after being beaten.

Three of the past four Melbourne Cup winners were beaten the year before their success.

Twilight Payment won in 2020 off an 11^th placing in 2019, Verry Elleegant ran seventh the year before her win in 2021 and last year’s winner Without A Fight ran 13^th in 2022.

Vauban is one of four horses in this year’s race who ran last year, joined by stablemate Absurde (seventh last year), Okita Soushi (11^th) and Interpretation, who is back for his third crack at the race having finished last and sixth the past two years.

Favourites

Vauban joined the long list of favourites to bite the dust when he went under last year.

Makybe Diva was favourite in her latter two wins, while Jezabeel (1998), Might And Power (1997), Let’s Elope (1991), Kingston Rule (1990) and Empire Rose (1988) are among those to win as favourite before her.

But in the 18 editions since Makybe Diva, the only favourite to win was Fiorente, who won as $7 favourite.

Incentivise (2021), Hartnell (2016) and So You Think (2010) are the only other outright favourites to place in that time, while Pop Rock was $6 equal favourite when runner-up in 2006.

Without A Fight won as an $8 chance last year but the previous four winners were $21, $17, $26 and $11 and in the post-Makybe Diva-era half of the winners have started between $10 and $21.

Onesmoothoperator ($8) and Sea King ($9) were the others are single-figure quotes in the first markets released after Saturday night’s barrier draw with Absurde ($10), Land Legend ($15), Interpretation ($15), Zardozi ($17) and Kovalica ($21) the others at $21 or shorter.